A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
